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                                                                                                                                                                          澳门美高梅在线赌场:中航证券:告稳增长渐进发力 经济或先降后稳

                                                                                                                                                                          2019年02月11日 20:10 来源:Zrbx电气设备有限公司
                                                                                                                                                                              主要观点:

                                                                                                                                                                          2019年全球经济格局可能从2018年美国经济一枝独秀的局面变为全球同步回落。OECD领先指标和制造业PMI显示全球经济复苏已经见顶,主要经济体复苏进程将会转弱。美国国债期限利差对未来经济走势有一定的指示意义,参考历史经验,当出现长短端收益率倒挂后,将大概率出现经济增速放缓,货币政策由加息转向降息,而目前长短端收益率已经十分接近倒挂。从本轮利差波动周期持续时间来看,本轮周期也已处于尾声,2019年有望见到期限利差的拐点,其也对应着后续将出现经济下行以及货币政策的拐点。

                                                                                                                                                                          预计美元指数会有回落,但不会趋势性下行。美元指数的波动基本由欧元兑美元汇率决定,美国与欧元区的长债利差可以视为美元指数的高频领先指标,随着市场对美国经济和通胀预期的回落,美国长债收益率下行有望带动美欧利差进一步回落,这或将带动美元指数继续走弱。但2019年欧洲经济表现预计并不会比美国更好,2018年美强欧弱的格局会有一定的弱化,但大概率不会反转。因此美元指数预计会较2018年高位有一定回落,但不会出现趋势性的下行,全年可能以94-95为核心波动区间。

                                                                                                                                                                          外部环境对我国的影响喜忧参半。2019年全球经济复苏放缓,特别是如果美国经济开始走弱,将对我国外贸产生较明显的负面影响,叠加去年抢出口造成的对今年的透支,预计今年出口增速将较去年有明显下滑。相对利好的方面是,美国经济走弱将导致美联储货币政策收紧节奏继续放缓,这令我国所处的全球流动性环境边际改善,使得货币政策调整能够在内外部均衡之间更多倾向于内部均衡,即增加我国货币政策宽松的空间。